India's metro train expansion has been a costly endeavor, with billions invested in the hope of alleviating congestion in its financial hub, Mumbai. However, the reality is far from the projected success. The Aqua Line, a new metro train connecting Cuffe Parade to the airport, has seen low ridership, with estimates suggesting only a tenth of the projected 1.5 million daily passengers. This trend is not isolated; most metro systems in India have failed to meet even a fraction of their projected ridership, with some cities seeing ridership as low as 2% of estimates. The issue is multifaceted. Consultants often inaccurately project demand, and forecasts are based on offered capacity that may never be realized. For instance, in Bengaluru, peak-hour train frequency is five minutes or more, while the busiest metro rail systems operate with a frequency of a train every minute-and-a-half. Affordability is another critical factor; a single journey on the Aqua Line costs 10-70 rupees, while a three-month unlimited travel pass on the local Mumbai suburban railway is significantly cheaper. This makes metro travel unaffordable for lower-income workers. The lack of feeder buses for last-mile connectivity and high transit times between lines also contribute to the problem. Institutional disaggregation, where different operators work in silos, impedes effective solutions. Additionally, poor walkways and concerns about women's safety further discourage metro use. Despite these challenges, experts predict incremental improvements in metro use as traffic, pollution, parking, and road safety issues reach a tipping point. However, without cheaper and more seamless metro rides, a swift and dramatic rise in adoption is unlikely. The key to success lies in integrating bus systems, improving station access, and fare integration, ensuring that metros are not only operationally useful but also meet the needs of the people they serve.
