Is the 'new manager bounce' a real phenomenon in the Premier League, or just a myth? When a team hits a rough patch, the appointment of a new manager can often spark an unexpected turnaround. But is this a genuine strategy for long-term success, or just a temporary fix? Let's dive in and explore the data and insights from the BBC Sport's Ask Me Anything team. The New Manager Bounce: Fact or Fiction?
The 'new manager bounce' refers to the phenomenon where a team's performance and results improve after a new manager is appointed. This can be particularly noticeable when a new coach takes over after a sustained period of poor results. But is this a reliable strategy for success, or just a lucky coincidence? Let's take a closer look at the numbers and opinions of experts.
In the Premier League, the data suggests that clubs do generally see an immediate improvement in results after changing coaches. Of the last 30 permanent appointments, 18 teams bettered their points tally in their first five league games under the new boss, compared to the previous five games under the old boss. However, nine teams declined in that five-game spell, and three teams returned the exact same number of points as their previous coach.
While the stats suggest that firing and hiring a new manager is a quick fix, success on the pitch is not simply down to the coach, according to former Premier League boss Roy Hodgson. He told The Times in 2025, "It is a lottery whether the change is successful. It might turn on missing players returning from injury who then inspire the team, and that can coincide with a new manager coming in whose voice and tactics can have a significant effect."
Of those last 30 hires, Graham Potter has the best record, gaining 11 points from his first five games after replacing Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea. However, Potter's spell at Chelsea ultimately lasted just six months and 22 Premier League matches, gaining just 17 points from his final 17 league matches. David Moyes, Roy Hodgson, Unai Emery, and Ralf Rangnick all returned 10 points.
Under Rangnick, United picked up two points per game from his first five league games. But his five and a half month spell ended in disappointment with United getting just 27 points from his final 19 league matches, falling 11 points short of Champions League qualification. Emery posted 10 points from his opening five games after replacing Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa. The Spaniard has subsequently taken Villa into three successive European campaigns and is on course for a fourth at the end of this season.
However, of the last seven permanent appointments in the Premier League, three have failed to win any of their first five league games. Ange Postecoglou managed one draw during his short 39-day stint at Nottingham Forest, while Rob Edwards and Ivan Juric lost all of their opening five matches. With the hire and fire culture in the Premier League, it might come as a surprise that the two longest-serving managers, Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, currently occupy the top two spots in the table.
But Hodgson, who managed Blackburn, Fulham, Liverpool, West Brom, Crystal Palace, and Watford, said that the new manager bounce does not always equate to long-term success. "Football matches are won by players and not by managers," he said. "Whether the change in manager is successful is very much down to the quality of the players and their ability to get the club to the level the hierarchy needs them to be at. I'm sorry to say that quite often, especially for those at the wrong end of the table, it doesn't have the desired effect in the long term."
So, is the new manager bounce a real phenomenon, or just a myth? The data suggests that there can be an immediate improvement in results after changing coaches, but success on the pitch is not simply down to the coach. It's a complex interplay of factors, including the quality of the players, the manager's tactics and voice, and sometimes even luck. As Hodgson suggests, the new manager bounce may not always lead to long-term success, and it's important to consider the bigger picture when evaluating a team's performance.
